Britain, Conservatives, Holyrood Elections, Labour Party, LibDems, Politics, Scotland, Scottish Elections 2007, Scottish Green, scottish independence, SNP, SSP, Tommy Sheridan

scottish elections: predictions vs results

These were my predictions for Holyrood:

SNP 44, Labour 41, LibDem 21, Tories 18, Greens 2, SSP 1, Sheridan + independent

These are the results:

SNP 47, Labour 46, Tories 17, LibDem 16, Greens 2 + independent

I had predicted a narrow SNP victory, but it was even narrower: indeed, Cunninghame North’s 48 votes did it. I had predicted a squeeze for the smaller parties, but it was worse than I thought: no socialists at all. Also, the squeeze has affected LibDems and Tories too, which I wasn’t expecting. Overall, I got the general picture, missing on the details (but getting some, like the two seats for the Greens, or the single independent).

P.S. I couldn’t vote for Tommy Sheridan because of his outrageous support for Hezbollah, but I must say it’s a shame that someone like him is out of Holyrood.


7 thoughts on “scottish elections: predictions vs results

  1. I must agree that it is a detriment to the parliament that someone like Tommy Sheridan has lost his seat by 0.5% … it is an even greater detriment that someone like Lord Foulkes has won a seat.

    With hindsight it was alsmost inevitable given the overwhelming dominance of the SNP and Labour campaigns in addition to the splitting of the socialist vote … interestingly Solidarity took a greater share of the vote than the SSP did – so the mrs informs me.

  2. Alasdair,

    yes, I can confirm that Solidarity took quite a lot more than the SSP… and I think that will lead, sooner or later, to some sort of reunification… or at least to a lot of SSP members joining Sheridan… i dont think this blow will be the end of socialist movements in scotland… this is still too much of a poor and working class country for that to happen… and people will also realize pretty soon that the SNP certainly isn’t there for the working classes

  3. It is dissappointing that the SNP is further to the left than the Labour Party (who are only slightly less to the right than the Tories 😕 ) … the SSP and Solidarity are the only real options for those wishing to persue genuine policies from the left, and I don’t doubt that you are right insofar as only one socialist party can hope to emerge from the current state-of-affairs, which is almost as interesting as the broader political situation we have in Scotland at the moment.

    Regardless of what you think of Tommy sheridan he is certainly a principled and deft politician who deserves the respect of those from the ‘main’ parties … much more vocational than career orientated.

  4. the only thing I’d add, Alasdair, is that even though it is indeed interesting that a united socialist party might emerge from this situation, given that there already was one such thing, and that it got 6 MSPs last time around, then i guess a good five years, if not more, have been wasted.

    on the other hand, though, even though i think that positions like sheridan’s and people like sheridan should be represented in parliament, and that they improve the general debate in parliament, i would be much less comfortable with them holding the key to a majority in parliament. in those situations, these kind of left-wingers tend to stop change and reform rather than promote them

  5. The Scottish socialists (in general) certainly seem to propose the more ‘radical’ policies, and when they get them through (albeit) in a more watered down format it’s certainly to the benefit of the masses, or themost at need.

    Of course they do then go and entirely ruin their own credibility by proposing things in their manifesto’s such as the re-nationalisation of public transport and free public transport for all (a noble cause) but funded for by the nationalisation of the Royal Bank of Scotland 🙄 … I wonder if they costed the redundancy payments they’d have had to have made when the business was ran into the ground by the state and it all went hideously wrong …

  6. 🙂

    not to speak of the proposal to put up minimum wage to £8.50

    being against capitalism and free market economy does not mean that one doesn’t need to understand them first 😉 … Marx himself should be the example

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